Millennial Dusk:
Failed Religious Predictions and Hindsight Bias
Paul George
Psychology 101 D03: General Psychology
Professor Janice Russell
October 12, 2009
Abstract
Religion has a long history of attempting to predict the future. While Christianity as a whole has been interested in the end of the world, some sects of Christianity base much of their theology on end times prophecies. These end times groups predict various events that will lead to the end of civilization and the deliverance of the faithful. When these predictions fail, hindsight bias allows these groups to explain their failures. Methods involved include reinterpreting the Bible to justify failure, blaming church members, or rewriting church history to cover over the error. Jehovah’s Witnesses have a long history of failed prediction and an equally long history of explaining why those failures should not cast doubt on their ability to predict future events.
Millennial Dusk: Failed Religious Predictions and Hindsight Bias
Prediction has been with mankind since the beginning of written history. The Bible, and other ancient books, contain prophecies in an attempt to determine future events. Sports gamblers risk money based on who they predict will win a game. Pundits predict who will win the next political election. When prediction fails, however, many use hindsight bias to excuse their failed prediction. Hindsight bias is the “tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it” (Meyers, 2008, p. 10). Sports fans, after the team they predicted would win actually loses, often claim that they knew their team would lose all along (Bonds-Raacke, Fryer, Nicks, & Durr, 2001). Since most failed predictions rarely result in lasting harm, hindsight bias is rarely viewed as a serious psychological issue.
When religions use hindsight bias to explain failed predictions, it is harmful to the members of that religion. Because of the schemata members of predictive religions have developed, hindsight bias has allowed the leadership to maintain authority over the membership.
Hindsight bias has frequently appeared in religious apologetics when science has contradicted religious belief. Many evolutionist have found that, upon presentation of evidence proving evolution, creationists will go back to the Bible and find a new way to interpret it (Shermer, 2009). For decades, Jehovah’s Witnesses believed the earth was about 48,000 years old (Watchtower 2004). After scientific evidence proved the earth was older, they gave a Biblical explanation that the days of creation mentioned in the Bible book of Genesis were figurative and could not be determined (Watchtower, 1986, p. 11). Like most Christian religions, Jehovah’s Witnesses have developed a schema that the Bible’s account of creation is correct. When the facts contradict, they will reinterpret the Bible to preserve the schema. In this sense, hindsight bias is used to justify the change in belief. According to Beitman, hindsight bias is frequently used “for faith-held rather than scientifically supportable theory” (2009).
The middle of the nineteenth century saw an explosion of religions and cults in the United States. According to psychologist Singer, this led to regenerative sects, which tried to reform well-established churches from within and schismatic sects, which rejected established churches completely. The schismatic sects promoted a narrow interpretation of the Bible and enforced strict moral codes. Jehovah’s Witnesses, then known as the International Bible Students, fell comfortably into this category. Many of these religions were making predictions about the end of the world. As those predictions failed, most of these groups faded away or transformed into less eschatological minded mainstream religions. However, as history professor Penton writes, “Jehovah’s Witnesses are unique; they have preached millenarianism longer and more consistently than any major sectarian movement” (2002).
Charles Taze Russell, the founder of the group that would eventually be known as Jehovah’s Witnesses, predicted that the world would end in 1914 (Penton, 21, 2002). Specifically, he believed that Jesus would come and destroy everyone, with the exception of Russell’s followers. His group of followers, then known as the International Bible Students, were also called Millennial Dawners. In October 1914, they got up and were ready to be taken to Heaven. As 1914 came to and end, the end of the world did not. Rather than admit that he was wrong, Russell looked to the Bible and decided that Jesus was ruling the earth, but he was doing it invisibly. While the official history of the religion acknowledges that Russell was wrong, it glosses over many other dates and predictions that came and went without incident. It even questions the motives of those who were expecting salvation. Those who were upset that the end did not come were, according to the Watchtower, more interested in salvation than serving God (Watchtower, 1993). Hindsight bias was applied to the Bible to prove that, while Russell may have had the details wrong, he was still basically correct (Penton, 2002, p. 198). Since the vast majority of the churches members were convinced that the leadership was being led by God, they accepted any explanation given for the failure of these predictions.
From 1920 to 1940, various dates for the end of the world were set. Each one failed. Rather than admit error, the church leadership found scriptures to support their view, blame church members, or simply rewrite their literature to reflect new dates. While a small portion would leave after each failure, the leadership would tarnish their reputations by calling them apostates (Barrett, 1996, p. 84). For questioning the accuracy of the Watchtower organization, they were to be ignored by any friends and family that wanted to remain faithful to the Watchtower.
For decades, Jehovah’s Witnesses wisely avoided setting dates. However, in the late 60s, the organization began to focus on 1975 as a special date. Many members of the leadership were saying that 1975 was the year the world would end. The literature produced during this period praised people who sold their houses or quit their jobs to preach the Jehovah’s Witness doctrine (Franz, 2002, p. 247). Vice president of the Watchtower, Frederick Franz, frequently told church members that they should “look forward confidently to what the autumn [of 1975] would bring” (Penton, 2002, 99).
When 1975 proved uneventful, Franz used hindsight bias to explain the failure of the prophecy. Franz referred to a scripture, which says that no one would know the day or hour of the end (Matt. 25:36, New Rev. Stand. Vers.). He then blamed the church members for the failure, stating that it did not happen because they expected something to happen. Still, Franz insisted that the end would come in the next few years (Penton, 2002, p. 100). This form of hindsight bias allows religious leaders to simply dig into the Bible and pull out anything that supports their ideas. Since Jehovah’s Witnesses believe that the governing body that makes these decisions were chosen by Jesus to lead them, they willingly fit any change in doctrine to fit the schema they have established in their minds.
That schema is that the leadership of the Watchtower, known as the governing body, have been selected by Jesus Christ to interpret the Bible (Watchtower 2004). Jehovah’s Witnesses are to be loyal to the teachings of the Watchtower. To question Watchtower teachings, even ones that are not clear Bible teachings, means rejecting God. This authority is accepted by all Witnesses. Therefore, when faced with false prediction, members try to find away to fit the error into the schema that the Watchtower is the method God uses to communicate with mankind. Likewise, the governing body of Jehovah’s Witnesses believe that they have been chosen to be God’s authority on earth. When predictions fail, they must find a way to maintain that authority. Admitting mistakes would suggest that maybe they are not actually being guided by supernatural forces.
These predictions may seem harmless, even amusing. It becomes clear, however, that this form of hindsight bias is dangerous to those who continue to listen to religious predictions. Many Jehovah’s Witnesses, believing the end is near, have sold their homes, given up careers, left college, put off life saving surgery, and severed ties with family members who openly disagree with their beliefs. As excuse after excuse is provided to explain failure, most Witnesses refuse to question the schema that they have established.
Research into cognitive functions has led many researchers to the conclusion that most reasoning is “unconscious, automatic, and rarely open to introspection” (“Thought,” 1995, p. 53). Hindsight bias distorts judgment. Rather than think about what actually happened, most people will simply fit what they can into what they thought would happen. End times religions, like Jehovah’s Witnesses, have developed schemas that tell them certain things are supposed to happen. They have a prediction bias that tell them to expect certain events in the future. When those predictions fail they are rarely open to introspection. Instead, they have already been primed by over a century of organized hindsight bias, to reconcile what they thought would happen with what did happen.
References
Barrett, D.V. (1996). Sects, ’Cults’ and Alternative Religions. London: Cassell.
Beitman, B. (2009). Brains Seek Patterns in Coincidences. Psychiatric Annals, 39(5), 255-264. http://search.ebscohost.com.
Bonds-Raacke, J., Fryer, L., Nicks, S., & Durr, R. (2001). Hindsight Bias Demonstrated in the Prediction of a Sporting Event. Journal of Social Psychology, 141(3), 349. http://search.ebscohost.com,
Franz, R. (2002). Crisis of Conscience. Atlanta: Commentary Press.
New Revised Standard Version (1989). Grand Rapids: Zondervan.
Penton, M.J. (2002). Apocalypse Delayed. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
Shermer, M. (2009). Creationism in 3-D. Scientific American, 300(5), 32. http://search.ebscohost.com.
Singer, T.S. (2003). Cults in Our Midst. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Thought and Communication. Basic Behavioral Science Research for Mental Health: A National Investment. 1995: 53-67. SIRS Government Reporter. Web. 05 October, 2009.
Watchtower Bible and Tract Society. (1993). Jehovah’s Witnesses, Proclaimers of God’s Kingdom. Brooklyn: Watchtower Bible and Tract Society.
Watchtower Bible and Tract Society. (1985). Life - How Did It Get Here?. Brooklyn: Watchtower Bible & Tract Society.
Watchtower Bible and Tract Society. (2005). Watchtower Library 2004 [CD-ROM]. Brooklyn: Watchtower Bible & Tract Society.
Failed Religious Predictions and Hindsight Bias
Paul George
Psychology 101 D03: General Psychology
Professor Janice Russell
October 12, 2009
Abstract
Religion has a long history of attempting to predict the future. While Christianity as a whole has been interested in the end of the world, some sects of Christianity base much of their theology on end times prophecies. These end times groups predict various events that will lead to the end of civilization and the deliverance of the faithful. When these predictions fail, hindsight bias allows these groups to explain their failures. Methods involved include reinterpreting the Bible to justify failure, blaming church members, or rewriting church history to cover over the error. Jehovah’s Witnesses have a long history of failed prediction and an equally long history of explaining why those failures should not cast doubt on their ability to predict future events.
Millennial Dusk: Failed Religious Predictions and Hindsight Bias
Prediction has been with mankind since the beginning of written history. The Bible, and other ancient books, contain prophecies in an attempt to determine future events. Sports gamblers risk money based on who they predict will win a game. Pundits predict who will win the next political election. When prediction fails, however, many use hindsight bias to excuse their failed prediction. Hindsight bias is the “tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it” (Meyers, 2008, p. 10). Sports fans, after the team they predicted would win actually loses, often claim that they knew their team would lose all along (Bonds-Raacke, Fryer, Nicks, & Durr, 2001). Since most failed predictions rarely result in lasting harm, hindsight bias is rarely viewed as a serious psychological issue.
When religions use hindsight bias to explain failed predictions, it is harmful to the members of that religion. Because of the schemata members of predictive religions have developed, hindsight bias has allowed the leadership to maintain authority over the membership.
Hindsight bias has frequently appeared in religious apologetics when science has contradicted religious belief. Many evolutionist have found that, upon presentation of evidence proving evolution, creationists will go back to the Bible and find a new way to interpret it (Shermer, 2009). For decades, Jehovah’s Witnesses believed the earth was about 48,000 years old (Watchtower 2004). After scientific evidence proved the earth was older, they gave a Biblical explanation that the days of creation mentioned in the Bible book of Genesis were figurative and could not be determined (Watchtower, 1986, p. 11). Like most Christian religions, Jehovah’s Witnesses have developed a schema that the Bible’s account of creation is correct. When the facts contradict, they will reinterpret the Bible to preserve the schema. In this sense, hindsight bias is used to justify the change in belief. According to Beitman, hindsight bias is frequently used “for faith-held rather than scientifically supportable theory” (2009).
The middle of the nineteenth century saw an explosion of religions and cults in the United States. According to psychologist Singer, this led to regenerative sects, which tried to reform well-established churches from within and schismatic sects, which rejected established churches completely. The schismatic sects promoted a narrow interpretation of the Bible and enforced strict moral codes. Jehovah’s Witnesses, then known as the International Bible Students, fell comfortably into this category. Many of these religions were making predictions about the end of the world. As those predictions failed, most of these groups faded away or transformed into less eschatological minded mainstream religions. However, as history professor Penton writes, “Jehovah’s Witnesses are unique; they have preached millenarianism longer and more consistently than any major sectarian movement” (2002).
Charles Taze Russell, the founder of the group that would eventually be known as Jehovah’s Witnesses, predicted that the world would end in 1914 (Penton, 21, 2002). Specifically, he believed that Jesus would come and destroy everyone, with the exception of Russell’s followers. His group of followers, then known as the International Bible Students, were also called Millennial Dawners. In October 1914, they got up and were ready to be taken to Heaven. As 1914 came to and end, the end of the world did not. Rather than admit that he was wrong, Russell looked to the Bible and decided that Jesus was ruling the earth, but he was doing it invisibly. While the official history of the religion acknowledges that Russell was wrong, it glosses over many other dates and predictions that came and went without incident. It even questions the motives of those who were expecting salvation. Those who were upset that the end did not come were, according to the Watchtower, more interested in salvation than serving God (Watchtower, 1993). Hindsight bias was applied to the Bible to prove that, while Russell may have had the details wrong, he was still basically correct (Penton, 2002, p. 198). Since the vast majority of the churches members were convinced that the leadership was being led by God, they accepted any explanation given for the failure of these predictions.
From 1920 to 1940, various dates for the end of the world were set. Each one failed. Rather than admit error, the church leadership found scriptures to support their view, blame church members, or simply rewrite their literature to reflect new dates. While a small portion would leave after each failure, the leadership would tarnish their reputations by calling them apostates (Barrett, 1996, p. 84). For questioning the accuracy of the Watchtower organization, they were to be ignored by any friends and family that wanted to remain faithful to the Watchtower.
For decades, Jehovah’s Witnesses wisely avoided setting dates. However, in the late 60s, the organization began to focus on 1975 as a special date. Many members of the leadership were saying that 1975 was the year the world would end. The literature produced during this period praised people who sold their houses or quit their jobs to preach the Jehovah’s Witness doctrine (Franz, 2002, p. 247). Vice president of the Watchtower, Frederick Franz, frequently told church members that they should “look forward confidently to what the autumn [of 1975] would bring” (Penton, 2002, 99).
When 1975 proved uneventful, Franz used hindsight bias to explain the failure of the prophecy. Franz referred to a scripture, which says that no one would know the day or hour of the end (Matt. 25:36, New Rev. Stand. Vers.). He then blamed the church members for the failure, stating that it did not happen because they expected something to happen. Still, Franz insisted that the end would come in the next few years (Penton, 2002, p. 100). This form of hindsight bias allows religious leaders to simply dig into the Bible and pull out anything that supports their ideas. Since Jehovah’s Witnesses believe that the governing body that makes these decisions were chosen by Jesus to lead them, they willingly fit any change in doctrine to fit the schema they have established in their minds.
That schema is that the leadership of the Watchtower, known as the governing body, have been selected by Jesus Christ to interpret the Bible (Watchtower 2004). Jehovah’s Witnesses are to be loyal to the teachings of the Watchtower. To question Watchtower teachings, even ones that are not clear Bible teachings, means rejecting God. This authority is accepted by all Witnesses. Therefore, when faced with false prediction, members try to find away to fit the error into the schema that the Watchtower is the method God uses to communicate with mankind. Likewise, the governing body of Jehovah’s Witnesses believe that they have been chosen to be God’s authority on earth. When predictions fail, they must find a way to maintain that authority. Admitting mistakes would suggest that maybe they are not actually being guided by supernatural forces.
These predictions may seem harmless, even amusing. It becomes clear, however, that this form of hindsight bias is dangerous to those who continue to listen to religious predictions. Many Jehovah’s Witnesses, believing the end is near, have sold their homes, given up careers, left college, put off life saving surgery, and severed ties with family members who openly disagree with their beliefs. As excuse after excuse is provided to explain failure, most Witnesses refuse to question the schema that they have established.
Research into cognitive functions has led many researchers to the conclusion that most reasoning is “unconscious, automatic, and rarely open to introspection” (“Thought,” 1995, p. 53). Hindsight bias distorts judgment. Rather than think about what actually happened, most people will simply fit what they can into what they thought would happen. End times religions, like Jehovah’s Witnesses, have developed schemas that tell them certain things are supposed to happen. They have a prediction bias that tell them to expect certain events in the future. When those predictions fail they are rarely open to introspection. Instead, they have already been primed by over a century of organized hindsight bias, to reconcile what they thought would happen with what did happen.
References
Barrett, D.V. (1996). Sects, ’Cults’ and Alternative Religions. London: Cassell.
Beitman, B. (2009). Brains Seek Patterns in Coincidences. Psychiatric Annals, 39(5), 255-264. http://search.ebscohost.com.
Bonds-Raacke, J., Fryer, L., Nicks, S., & Durr, R. (2001). Hindsight Bias Demonstrated in the Prediction of a Sporting Event. Journal of Social Psychology, 141(3), 349. http://search.ebscohost.com,
Franz, R. (2002). Crisis of Conscience. Atlanta: Commentary Press.
New Revised Standard Version (1989). Grand Rapids: Zondervan.
Penton, M.J. (2002). Apocalypse Delayed. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
Shermer, M. (2009). Creationism in 3-D. Scientific American, 300(5), 32. http://search.ebscohost.com.
Singer, T.S. (2003). Cults in Our Midst. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Thought and Communication. Basic Behavioral Science Research for Mental Health: A National Investment. 1995: 53-67. SIRS Government Reporter. Web. 05 October, 2009.
Watchtower Bible and Tract Society. (1993). Jehovah’s Witnesses, Proclaimers of God’s Kingdom. Brooklyn: Watchtower Bible and Tract Society.
Watchtower Bible and Tract Society. (1985). Life - How Did It Get Here?. Brooklyn: Watchtower Bible & Tract Society.
Watchtower Bible and Tract Society. (2005). Watchtower Library 2004 [CD-ROM]. Brooklyn: Watchtower Bible & Tract Society.
